The Internet 10 Years From Now

 June 10, 2007 

Introduction

The Internet has come a long way from its scholastic beginnings in the high tech US universities of US in the early 1970s where a handful of scientists developed a rudimentary network that allowed computers on different networks to be connected and speak to each other. With the passing decades, the Internet has evolved exponentially and is now regarded as an essential business and personal communication tool. The Internet will evolve the way the car has evolved from what it was a century ago and just like the current cars still have four wheels, a driver and needs fuel, only the cars are much faster, sleeker and can do a number of other things. This paper examines various propositions on how the Internet would be like 10 years from now.

Speed and Bandwidth availability

Gutwein (Gutwein Barry, May 1 2006) has suggested that the bandwidth and speed that would be available to common users would reach 100 megabytes per second and when compared to the actual speed of a few kilobytes per second currently available, this means that audio, video and other high bandwidth media would stream effortlessly. It would be thus possible for almost anyone to watch movies, listen to audio, watch live events that are streamed from the Internet. The number of users is also expected to cross 3 billion, up from the current 1 billion users. According to a report from BBC News (Twist, 2004), the Internet infrastructure currently is in the ‘Bronze age’ and much would be done to take it into the next age that is the ‘Iron age’. The report also predicts that web addresses will become a norm and people would probably not remember or have to remember telephone numbers.

Convergence of Technologies

The Internet of the future will see a convergence of different systems, content and media and the Internet would emerge as the prime medium to deliver rich media content. Internet is seen more as an enabler and a facilitator that allows information to be easily retrieved and sent through wither computers or handheld devices. Taylor (Taylor Susan, May 9 2007) has reported that large companies such as Nortel and Cisco are investing billions of dollars in R&D to develop the infrastructure required for the forecasted ‘hyperconnectivity’ requirements of the future. According to the report, the company is finding ways and means to develop 4G means of communications that will merge the Internet and cellular phones. The company hopes that such systems will give it a leading edge over low cost competitors. According to the report, there would be more than 100 billion e Commerce transaction and more than 70 percent of the cars will have iPods, GPS and other systems, which are served by high bandwidth connectivity.

Future Users and Uses

 Chase (Chase Larry, 2006) has given a number of possible scenarios for marketers who would use the Internet very often. He predicts that RSS or Real Simple Syndication will grow and users can get a live feed of subjects of their choice with point and click features and this would allow instantaneous download of music and video. Since there would be vast amount of information, personal information agents will emerge and these would be software application that ask for your preferences and needs and find the information that is required. Chase also suggests that blog’s will turn to audio and video format and IPTV will become the norm.

Rainie (Rainie et all, 2005) has provided a report of survey of technology experts who have predicted where the Internet technology is headed. The report says that the boundary between work and leisure will diminish and that virtual classes will become more common. There will also be increase in the transparency of organizations and government bodies and it will be difficult to hide information. There would be an emergence of a new breed of Internet entrepreneurs who would enable transaction and entertainment media to be used.

Thin Client Architecture

Jain (Jain Rajesh, 2006) has suggested that the concept of hard disk and using proprietary software will be gone or become redundant. Instead, a thin client system will be in place and future users will have small, extremely high computing hand held devices that will be connected to a central server. With the availability of very high bandwidth, information will flow like tap water and applications such as Excel, Word, Power Point will all be available from the open source community at very low cost.

Online Games and Movies

With convergence as the new watchword, Fortune reports that Sony will invest heavily into developing the Cell Chip that will have very large computing power and allow gaming devices to connect to the Internet and allow users to play games on TV consoles. The games will have evolved to such a realistic extent that the lines between a movie and a computer-generated game would be blurred. It is also predicted that the new gaming devices would serve as small and compact super computers that would create a network and share the extremely heavy graphics (Cell Chip, 2006).

Government Controls

Once the Internet becomes very critical, it is expected that government would attempt to control it in one way or another without seeming to stifle creativity. Waters (Waters Darren, 11 October 2006) has reported that as more and more corporate business and countries such as China take to the Internet, there would be an urgent need to make the Internet secure from perceived threats. This would tend to make a Balkanization’ of the Internet and there would be islands and pools of networks that would be separated from the rest of the world. Waters has also suggested that the URL address that is entered in English would be replaced by other languages such as Chinese and other Asian languages. The coding scheme of the Internet data would change from the 7 bit ASCII to the 2 bit Unicode that would allow other characters such as Hebrew and Chinese to be entered.

What will happen to Microsoft

Langberg (Langberg 2007) suggests that big monolithic companies such as Microsoft will go the way of the TRex. He points out that that Microsoft is achieving most of its sales from the Windows operating system. Because if its huge structure, it is difficult for the company to enter into smaller and new markets and the Xbox and other new divisions have undergone massive losses. He predicts that unless Microsoft becomes more nimble, it would become extinct, 10 years from now.

The Extreme Future Threats

The future would need to develop protocols for interplanetary and space travel Internet use, similar to what NASA is using. There would be a need to develop an entirely new set of protocols that would serve the space ships and satellites. While these advances would take some time, NASA has already asked vendors to develop such protocols and it may not be far when domain names such as Earth, Jupiter, Pluto and others would be registered. (Jesdanun Anick, April 16, 2007).

 

References

Cell Chip, 2007, Sony cell Chip for the future, Fortune Online, 10 June 2007 <Visit this site>

Chase Larry, 2006, Larry Chase's Top 10 Trends for the Next 10 Years for Internet Marketing, Larry Chase Web Digest for Marketers, 10 June 2007 <Visit this site>

Gutwein Barry, May 1 2006, ‘The Internet 10 Years From Now. Diamond Engagement Ring Brought Right To Your Hand?’, Diamond Vues, 10 June 2007 <Visit this site>

Jain Rajesh, 26 May 2004, 5 Years From Now, Rajesh Jain's Weblog on Emerging Technologies, Enterprises and Markets, 10 June 2007 <Visit this site>

Jesdanun Anick, April 16, 2007, Internet transition could be difficult, The Associated Press, 10 June 2007 <Visit this site>

Langberg, 2007, Microsoft Evolution, Silicon Valley Mercury News, 10 June 2007, <Visit this site>

Rainie Lee, Fox Susannah, Janna Quitney Anderson, 1 January 2005, ‘The Future of the Internet’, PEW Internet & American Life Project, 10 June 2007 <Visit this site>

Taylor Susan, May 9 2007, Nortel bets big R&D dollars on 'hyperconnectivity', Reuters Online, 10 June 2007 <Visit this site>

Twist Jo, June 23 2004, ‘Net pioneer predicts web future’, BBC News Online science and technology staff, 10 June 2007 <Visit this site>

Waters Darren, 11 October 2006, 'Warning over 'broken up' internet', BBC Online News, 10 June 2007 <Visit this site>

 

 

Done By: Eng. Saleh Alajji

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